What Can Labour Do to Boost EV Adoption? Insights by Erin Baker

The automotive industry remains in limbo this quarter: sales of electric cars in the UK are largely static year on year at about 18% of the market (albeit rising in recent months), and yet a Government-mandated target stipulating that 22% of total vehicle sales must be electric from each manufacturer by the end of this year is still in place, in the form of the ZEV mandate, which rises year on year, to 80% in 2030.

Why won’t Rachel Reeves give OEMs breathing space in the sales mandate?

When will we get more detail on their decision to let plug-in hybrids form part of the electric mix beyond 2030, up to 2035?

And where are the incentives for consumers to make the switch, given the price differential between new petrol and electric cars remains stubbornly at about 30%, and not enough people are buying used?

So many questions, which gives you some indication of the turmoil ripping through the industry like a whirlwind, spinning national sales companies until they don’t know which way to point their forecasts.

The challenge for Labour

As predicted by an off-the-record briefing, we heard nothing on October 30th to interest the automotive industry.

Labour seems to believe that OEMs had their chance to feed into the ZEV mandate consultation months ago and must walk the path they chose. Furthermore, such is the public-finances black hole, Reeves is not in the mood to start slashing taxes on energy or cars in order to make an EV a more palatable choice for drivers.

The transition from fossil fuels to batteries is going to leave a new headache in the form of fuel-duty losses which Labour has to contend with, probably via a pay-per-mile system, so letting drivers off tax in other quarters brings tears to the eyes of the Treasury.

There is a but...

But. And it’s a big but.

There’s a famous and off-cited theory, which represents technology adoption, by a guy called Everett Rogers, called the Diffusion of Innovations. It’s represented on a graph by a bell curve.

The curve zooms up, representing the rate at which new technology is adopted, by five per cent of the population, then 10%, then 15%, then… at 16%, it drops off a cliff. Up until that point, the curve is riding high on the innovators and the early adopters, who get all excited by a new bit of technology so want it, buy it and love it.

After that though, who should be next on the adoption curve? The early majority.

These guys aren’t excited by the latest gadget - they quite fancy it, but they’re worried it’s untested, it’s expensive, no one they know has got one… Sound familiar? It’s exactly where electric cars are stuck.

30%

The price differential between new petrol and electric cars remains stubbornly high for now

The three things consumers need.

So, the question Labour must ask itself is: what do these people need to get on the curve and bridge the chasm? Three things, IMO (as my kids say). Knowledge, confidence and financial incentives. Let’s examine them.

Where is the public information campaign? It would be the cheapest solution on offer and so effective, because a huge percentage of the population doesn’t read car magazines, or watch car reviews on YouTube, so how are they going to understand the benefits of electric cars, and demystify the process?

In the absence of a campaign, myths spring up everywhere, expounded by the more conservative media.

Dispelling myths

For example, 40% of the population thinks electric cars catch fire, according to data from Auto Trader.

And yet, as Cox Automotive knows from expertise within its EV Battery Solutions business, the likelihood of an EV fire is 0.03%, significantly lower than ICE vehicles, which have a 1.5% chance of catching fire.

This makes EVs 60 times less likely to catch fire than petrol-powered cars.

"Currently, just five to ten per cent of EV batteries have been written off after a crash or malfunction. Of those, about half of them go on to be recycled or repurposed. By 2030, this figure is forecast to stand at 80-85 per cent."

Erin Baker

Journalist & EV Battery Solutions Brand Ambassador

"Currently, just five to ten per cent of EV batteries have been written off after a crash or malfunction. Of those, about half of them go on to be recycled or repurposed. By 2030, this figure is forecast to stand at 80-85 per cent."

Another example: so many consumers I come across when I’m on BBC Radio 4 You and Yours, answering listener phone-ins on EVs, firmly believe that when an EV crashes, it must be written off because you can’t repair batteries.

But you can, and the situation is only improving as more technicians are trained in the UK. Currently, just five to 10% of EV batteries have been written off after a crash or malfunction, according to extensive data at EV Battery Solutions.

Of those, about half of them go on to be recycled or repurposed. By 2030, this figure is forecast to stand at 80-85 per cent.

Whichever way you look at it, the EV story is only going in one direction: the right way. No one analyses petrol or diesel engines in the same manner, asking how many get written off after a crash or are recycled. Knowledge is key.

Confidence

If consumers don’t know about battery repairs and recyclability, or that EVs don’t catch fire, they’re going to be worried about their carbon footprint, and even more worried about the residual value of their car.

It’s even more relevant for women, who have less confidence than men in going electric, according to the report No Driver Left Behind: Women and the Journey to Electric, published last year by Auto Trader, which found that 63% of women felt they didn’t know enough to make the switch.

That’s mad.

Financial incentives

Financial incentives.

Ok, the plug-in grant of £5,000 (remember that?) isn’t coming back.

But what about lowering the 20% VAT charged on public energy to match the five per cent charged on domestic electricity.
What about halving VAT on EVs for three years to stimulate the market? What about free parking and tolls for EV drivers?

What can Labour do to boost EV adoption?

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